In the Bundesliga, there may soon be games played both with and without spectators. And that could have consequences for the outcome of the match. Keyword: “home-field advantage.” But does it even exist? But if so how can you use it as an advantage when setting a bet at Zambia casino real money.
Soccer players, both men and women, repeatedly emphasize how important it is to have the fans behind them. Yet from a scientific perspective, it is difficult to say exactly what influence fans actually have on the outcome of matches. Home-field advantage, however, does exist, says Daniel Memmert of the German Sport University Cologne. He and his colleague Christian Unkelbach investigated this several years ago.
“Based on the findings of my colleagues and our own research, it must be clearly stated that the influence of spectators is systematically overestimated. In other words, spectators have the least influence—if any at all—on the outcome of a soccer match.”
The overall influence of fans is indeed overestimated, says Daniel Memmert. Nevertheless, when the Bundesliga was introduced in the 1960s, the percentage of home wins remained consistently between 55 and 60 percent.
In recent years, however, there have been fewer and fewer home wins—the rate now stands at only about 45 percent. The home-field advantage has thus diminished, although it still exists. It is difficult to say why this is the case. Daniel Memmert suspects that travel used to be more complicated or take longer.
Matchdays Played Behind Closed Doors: See More Away Wins
In the past season, the final nine matchdays were played entirely without spectators. One striking trend in the first division’s results: there were suddenly significantly more away wins than home wins. However, Daniel Memmert notes that it’s impossible to say for certain whether the absence of fans is truly to blame. After all, he explains, if one focuses solely on the results, it’s difficult to quantify the home-field advantage. Often, the difference between a 1-0 win and a 1-1 draw is just a matter of luck.
It therefore makes more sense to measure home-field advantage by the number of goals scored. And when you combine the first two Bundesliga divisions, the overall figure hasn’t changed all that much without fans. The games provided far too small a data set to draw any conclusions.
Two Factors Crucial for Home Advantage
When it comes to the reasons for home advantage, Daniel Memmert sees essentially two factors that play a role. One is familiarity—playing “at home” in a familiar stadium. This can provide stability, security, and confidence. But exactly how this plays out is difficult to measure. In contrast to another factor: the referee.
“We’ve also conducted experiments on this and can clearly demonstrate that referees are systematically influenced by crowd noise.”
Referees have arguably the most difficult role on the field. They must keep a close eye on everything—without letting themselves be influenced by the players or the heated atmosphere in the stadium. However, this doesn’t always seem to work. On average, referees issue more yellow cards to the visiting team than to the home team.
Fans influence the ref
So the influence of fans on their own team might be smaller than many hope—but they demonstrably do influence the referee.
So if some clubs have to play without fans in the coming months due to rising infections, that could actually affect the games. But Daniel Memmert doesn’t see this as distorting the competition.
