At this point, a team with four wins looks strong. However, a couple of things can hide this. Those things include late goals or weak defending, poor chance creation, and performances that aren’t as good as the final score. That’s why deeper analysis is needed.
One way to do this is to use team performance, expected goals, and match tempo and evaluate each game beyond the results and recent form.
Start With Team Performance
There’s a lot of value in knowing team performance lately, but there are good ways and bad ways for teams to get results. One team may be controlling matches, while the other team may have to rely on penalties, set pieces, and narrow wins.
So there’s a lot more to it than the scoreline. This can include home and away form, goals scored, goals conceded, defensive errors, recent injuries, and suspensions, match quality, and recent changes in team tactics.
Use Expected Goals Carefully
Not all shots are good. Expected goals help provide the quality of scoring chances based on location of the shot, the angle, the type, etc.
This provides important context.
For example, one team can take 18 poor quality shots, while another team takes 8 shots and creates very good scoring chances in inside the penalty area.
| Metric | Meaning |
| xG for | Chance quality created |
| xG against | Chance quality conceded |
| xG difference | Attacking and defensive balance |
| xG trend | Direction of recent performances |
Do Not Treat xG as a Score Forecast
xG is not the final score. A value of 2.1 does not indicate that a team will score two goals. Many variables determine the outcome of a match, such as goal posts, goalkeepers, penalties, shots that hit players before going in, and red cards.
Think of xG as a pattern. If a team creates many quality chances, recent results may not reflect the full extent of the team’s attacking play.
The same will apply to the other end. A team winning matches and creating little while conceding many quality chances should be of major concern.
Add Match Tempo
A high tempo game involves a lot of pressing, quick attacking transitions, and a lot of attacking constant changes of possession. This also applies to the defensive line and allows fast, unobstructed movement for the attacking team.
A low tempo game is completely the opposite. Teams may decide to play deeply and limit central zone possession. This extends the time a team holds possession and reduces the number of attacks and counterattacks.
See the tactical match up.
Two fast transition teams may open up the game and become a poor defensive contest. A defensive team in possession may just hold onto the ball and become a poor offensive team.
Goals can occur in a fast, poor quality shot match. Tempo and the quality of the shots must be taken into consideration.
Use a Three-Layer Match Model
The match model is simple, first check if recent results are a true representation of strong performances.
Second, analyse chance quality. Instead of focusing on one result that stands out, analyse xG numbers across multiple matches.
Third, analyse tempo. Think about how the style of play for each of the competing teams might affect the available space, transitions, pressing intensity, and the number of attack sequences.
Compare the Analysis With the Market
Develop your own analysis and opinion. Analysing BC Game Indonesia odds too early may develop confirmation bias, where people start to search for stats to support a market they favour.
Create a quick match analysis. Determine which team should have possession, which team creates the better chances, recent form (sustainable or unsustainable), as well as whether the match will be fast or slow.
Evidence should then be the deciding factor. It is not always necessary to analyse every game, as mixed messages can be the best reason for remaining cautious.
Final Thoughts
Football cannot be analyzed with the use of a single metric. Recent form, xG, and tempo all provide unique angles of a match. However, they become immensely more valuable when combined. Analyse the performance. Add chance quality. Study the likely tempo. This provides an analysis that is significantly more valuable than most of what can be found at a sportsbook. It also decreases the risk of favouring one stat.
