Every weekend, many Kenyans hope to be among the few who hit the jackpot, but the chances of winning are dismal for the majority. It is not necessarily because their selections are poor or because of a setup, but because of a huge unfavourable number which most fail to factor in when placing their bets.
If you take betting seriously, you need to come to terms with this number because it will change your outlook about the slips you submit. This is the ugly truth.
The number nobody wants to hear
A basic jackpot bet requires one to predict the outcome of 17 soccer games. Each game can result in either a home team winning, a draw, or the away team winning.
This means that when you factor the outcomes for all the games, you get 3^17 = 129,140,163. That is over129 million bets. Only one is correct.
If you were to select the winning outcome completely at random, your chances of getting the right outcome are 1 in 129,140,163. To give this figure some context, it is worse than any other national lottery.
“But I don’t pick randomly”
True, but you’re guessing with some knowledge. There is a reasonable chance that Manchester City will beat a relegation side when they are playing at home, for instance. Having knowledge of soccer improves your selection more than choosing completely at random.
But, if you look at the entire 17 match selection, the benefit of knowledge quickly evaporates.
Imagine yourself as an expert predictor who can correctly guess individual matches 50% of the time (which is already impressive, because the random guess average is 33%). The odds of you getting all 17 matches correct would be… 0.5 multiplied by itself 17 times equals roughly 1 in 131,000.
These odds are still concerning. Being exactly double the guess average for all 17 matches gives you significantly better odds (about a thousand times better). However, most people betting still have really poor odds.
Even further. Imagine you guess correctly 60% of the time per individual match. What are your odds of a perfect 17? Roughly 1 in 6,600. This is better, but you still would not expect to get a win if you bet every week for over 100 years.
Why “sure predictions” can’t exist
Guaranteed slips, VIP tips, sure odds, etc. all stem from the same idea: pay a fee, and get the winning bet.
Using the math from before, all of these claims lose validity. If someone actually had a way of predicting 17 matches correctly, they would use it themselves, since the prize money is huge and the betting cost is small.
People selling sure predictions are making their money from selling the tips, not actually winning the bets. A tipster could go their whole life without winning a bet (because the model is so poor), and still win money if 500 people pay to see the tips.
Helpful honest tipsters do exist. They teach you to evaluate form, injuries, and value. An honest tipster knows there are no guarantees.
What the maths actually tells you to do
Does this mean you should never place a bet? Of course not. The logic suggests you should place the bet, just adjust your goals.
Instead of the big win, aim for the bonus tier. The big wins often require a 17/17 winning slip, while the bonus payouts come from slips that are 13, 14, or 15 winning predictions. These are much more attainable. If you place bets where you estimate 50% accuracy in each match, getting 14 out of 17 winning predictions is a reasonable expectation over a long enough time. These payouts exist in a completely different realm to a 17/17 winning slip. If you don’t understand tiered payouts, read up about how Betika jackpot’s bonus tier payouts work. This information will help you to win your bets.
Bet where you actually have knowledge. No one can have all the edge across all 17 matches. No one keeps track of all 17 leagues. Pick the matches where you actually know something, maybe you know a team’s poor away form or there’s a key injury. For the rest, pick the bet that makes the most sense. There is no value in debating closely matched teams that you know nothing about.
Respect the Draws
The draw is the biggest destroyer of jackpot slips. About a quarter of all football matches end in a draw, and punters will tend to select draws fewer than that. This is often because selecting a draw can feel like you’re not making a firm decision. If your slip has one or two draws out of 17, you’re probably understating them.
Set a budget and let it be for entertainment. The stake is intentionally small. Play with money you’re happy to spend on a night out on the town. Don’t increase your stake because you feel a slip that just missed was a close call. The numbers won’t care about how close you were in the previous week.
The honest bottom line
Betting on jackpots can be one of the best betting experiences in Kenya. You place a small stake, you get a weekend worth of hope, and potentially a life-altering jackpot. For the most part, it’s worth playing.
What isn’t worth playing for is the belief that someone has beaten the system somewhere. Over 129 million combinations can’t care how confidently someone in your group chat bets.
What you should be playing for is the bonus tiers. Take draws seriously, and treat all the sales pitches to draws with a guarantee of wins as what they are. There you have it.
Betting should be for entertainment. Never bet to make money or to change your financial situation. Always bet what you can afford to lose. 18+.
