The last two Premier League seasons have been difficult for the newly promoted clubs. At the end of the 2023/24 campaign, Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United all dropped straight back down to the Championship, and we may have a similar scenario this term.
Ipswich Town, Southampton, and Leicester City are all battling to beat the drop but with time running out, all three sides are desperate to claim points in a dramatic run-in.
Desperate Times
With ten games to go before the conclusion of the current Premier League campaign, Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich are the odds-on favourites to go down. Current relegation odds offer little hope to any of those three sides, and the clock is ticking in terms of survival.
While it’s still mathematically possible for several teams to get drawn into a relegation scrap, Wolves are realistically the only other club that could go down. After 28 games of the current campaign, Wolves are hovering above the drop zone and need more points in order to be safe.
Last season was the first time since 1998 that all three newly promoted teams went straight back down, but what are the chances of it happening two years in succession?
Saints Sinking
Southampton remain rooted at the bottom of the table following their 3-1 defeat at Liverpool on March 8th. The game had started positively for the Saints who were a goal up at half time, but the loss was typical of the club’s season. There have been bright spells for the team, but ultimately, results have fallen short.
While survival isn’t impossible, a total of nine points after twenty eight games tells its own story. At that stage, Southampton were eight points behind Leicester and Ipswich and a full 15 points from safety.
The realistic target for the club may be to exceed the lowest points total in a Premier League season. The current record of eleven was set by Derby County in 2008, making them the worst ever Premier League team.
There are issues for the club at both ends of the pitch, and a goal difference of minus 48 tells its own story. Southampton simply aren’t scoring enough goals and they possess the worst defence in the league. The Saints need to put a string of wins together, starting with their crucial home game against Wolves.
Ipswich
Under their highly respected young manager Kieran McKenna, Ipswich have delivered some impressive results this season. They’ve beaten Spurs away from home and have taken points from Chelsea, Manchester United and Aston Villa at their Portman Road ground.
The issue is that the Tractor Boys haven’t been consistent enough. They’ve failed to put a run of results together, and find themselves seven points from safety after 28 matches.
Ipswich spent big money in the summer transfer window, and new striker Liam Delap has enjoyed a productive campaign. The young forward has scored ten league goals this season, and his scoring capability is vital if Ipswich are to remain in the Premier League.
Leicester Outfoxed
Leicester City changed their manager in November, appointing former Manchester United coach Ruud van Nistelrooy to replace the outgoing Steve Cooper. The Dutchman promised an attacking style of play, but has been unable to improve results.
The Foxes have been weak across the pitch, but their defence is the biggest concern. Their total of 61 goals conceded is the second-worst in the division and, unless the team can improve at the back, Leicester City will make an immediate return to the Championship.
Are Wolves Safe?
With twenty three points from their first twenty eight games of the season, Wolves are the only other side in danger of relegation. Above them, there is a ten point gap to West Ham in sixteenth place, and it seems impossible for the Hammers to be overtaken.
Wolves have mounted a recovery of sorts following the sacking of former manager Gary O’Neill in December. At that stage, the club was second from bottom of the EPL, but results have improved under new boss Vitor Pereira.
The potential issue for Wolves is the fact that they have to play all three teams beneath them. Leicester City head to Molineux on April 26th but before that, Pereira’s men must travel to Southampton and Ipswich Town. If Wolves drop points in those key fixtures, they could find themselves back in the drop zone.
There’s still time for all of the newly promoted sides to beat the drop. Realistically, Southampton appear doomed, but Leicester City and Ipswich Town will be hopeful of overtaking Wolves. The issue for all of those teams is that Wolves are the only remaining genuine relegation candidate.
As the campaign reaches its run in, four teams are chasing just one survival slot. With a tough fixture schedule ahead, hope is fading for the three newly promoted clubs.
